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ISSN:2164-6457 (print)
ISSN:2164-6473 (online)
Journal of Applied Nonlinear Dynamics
Miguel A. F. Sanjuan (editor), Albert C.J. Luo (editor)
Miguel A. F. Sanjuan (editor)

Department of Physics, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, 28933 Mostoles, Madrid, Spain

Email: miguel.sanjuan@urjc.es

Albert C.J. Luo (editor)

Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Southern Illinois University Ed-wardsville, IL 62026-1805, USA

Fax: +1 618 650 2555 Email: aluo@siue.edu

Forecasting the Pandemic COVID-19 in India: A Mathematical Approach

Journal of Applied Nonlinear Dynamics 11(3) (2022) 549--571 | DOI:10.5890/JAND.2022.09.004

Manotosh Mandal$^{1,3}$, Soovoojeet Jana$^{2}$, Suvankar Majee$^{3}$, Anupam Khatua$^{3}$, T. K. Kar$^{3}$

$^{1}$ Department of Mathematics, Tamralipta Mahavidyalaya, Tamluk -721636, West Bengal, India

$^{2}$ Department of Mathematics, Ramsaday College, Amta-711401, Howrah, West Bengal, India

$^{3}$ Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology, Shibpur, Howrah-711103,

West Bengal, India

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Abstract

Due to the unavailability of proper antiviral therapies and high disease transmission rates, the pandemic COVID-19 is still increasing at a high rate in many countries. In each of the three countries, the USA, Brazil, and India, the COVID-19 positive cases have been crossed one million. With high population density and higher percentages of migrating workers has enabled India to be vulnerable to the disease quite more than other affected countries. In this paper, we have proposed a mathematical model with the help of a system of first-order ordinary differential equations and analyzed the model in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We have determined the expression of the basic reproduction number and relates it to establishing the disease-free equilibrium point's asymptotic stability and endemic equilibrium point. As it has been observed that only ten states and union territories are carrying more than $70\%$ infection in India, we have predicted long-term scenarios of the COVID-19 positive cases on those $10$ states and India until the end of the year 2020.

Acknowledgments

The work of S. Jana is partially supported by Dept of Science and Technology \& Biotechnology, Govt. of West Bengal (vide memo no. 201 (Sanc.)/ST/P/S \& T/16G-12/2018 dt 19-02-2019). Research of S. Majee is financially supported by Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) Government of India (No. 08/003(0142)/2020-EMR-I dated 18th March 2020). A. Khatua is financially supported by Department of Science and Technology-INSPIRE, Government of India (No. DST/INSPIRE Fellowship/2016/IF160667, dated: 21st September, 2016). Moreover, the authors are very much grateful to the anonymous reviewers, the associate editor Prof. Shanmuganathan Rajasekar, and the editor in chief Prof. Albert C.J. Luo for their constructive comments and useful suggestions to improve the quality and presentation of the manuscript significantly.

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