[ Log In | Register]
! Skip Navigation Links
Skip Navigation Links
Image of Discontinuity, Nonlinearity and Complexity
ISSN:2164-6376 (print)
ISSN:2164-6414 (online)
Discontinuity, Nonlinearity, and Complexity

Dimitry Volchenkov (editor), Dumitru Baleanu (editor)

Dimitry Volchenkov(editor)

Mathematics & Statistics, Texas Tech University, 1108 Memorial Circle, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA

Email: dr.volchenkov@gmail.com

Dumitru Baleanu (editor)

Cankaya University, Ankara, Turkey; Institute of Space Sciences, Magurele-Bucharest, Romania

Email: dumitru.baleanu@gmail.com

Disease Dynamics of the COVID-19 Outbreak and Detecting the Important Controlling Factors: A Model Based Study

Discontinuity, Nonlinearity, and Complexity 14(1) (2025) 243--257 | DOI:10.5890/DNC.2025.03.015

Sourav Rana$^{1}$, Krishna Pada Das$^2$, Subhadipa Das$^{3}$, Shubhadeep Ghosh$^{4}$

Download Full Text PDF

 

Abstract

The worldwide rapid outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has created a crisis in almost every country. The control of this disease possesses the ultimate challenge throughout the world. The mathematical model is an essential tool to study disease dynamics and is used to understand the impact of several control measures on disease propagation. In this work, we proposed and analyzed a compartmental model to study the spread of COVID-19 and its various control measures. The model parameters are influenced through different precautionary measures such as, social distancing, public awareness, improvement of hospital facilities, rapid case detection through testing, etc. These epidemiologically controllable parameters are directly linked with the disease spreading. Using partial rank correlation coefficient technique we observed that home isolations, self-awareness and social distancing measures have the most positive impact on the basic reproduction number $(R_0)$. An effective control strategy of the disease spread can be implemented through these measures and in some special situations, the value of $R_0$ is less than $1$ i.e. the disease can be controlled if the proper measures are implemented. Moreover, we observed that the recruitment rate plays a vital role in the long-term dynamics and due to the effect of recruitment, there may be a second peak or, the disease may co-exist in the population in absence of vaccination.

References

  1. [1]  Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., Ren, L., Zhao, J., Hu, Y., Zhang, L., Fan, G., Xu, J., Gu, X., and Cheng, Z. (2020), Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, The Lancet, 395(10223), 497-506.
  2. [2]  Shen, M., Peng, Z., Xiao, Y., and Zhang, L. (2020), Modeling the epidemic trend of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China, The Innovation, 1(3), 1-2.
  3. [3]  World Health Organization (WHO). (2020), Coronavirus.
  4. [4]  Our World in Data. (2020), COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic. Available online: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.
  5. [5]  Zhou, P., Yang, X.L., Wang, X.G., Hu, B., Zhang, L., Zhang, W., Si, H.R., Zhu, Y., Li, B., Huang, C.L., and Chen, H.D. (2020), A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin, Nature, 579(7798), 270-273.
  6. [6]  Shereen, M.A., Khan, S., Kazmi, A., Bashir, N., and Siddique, R. (2020), COVID-19 infection: Origin, transmission, and characteristics of human coronaviruses, Journal of Advanced Research, 24, 91-98.
  7. [7]  Kahn, J.S. and McIntosh, K. (2005), History and recent advances in coronavirus discovery, The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 24(11), 223-227.
  8. [8]  Killerby, M.E., Biggs, H.M., Midgley, C.M., Gerber, S.I., and Watson, J.T. (2020), Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus transmission, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(2), 191-198.
  9. [9]  Willman, M., Kobasa, D., and Kindrachuk, J.(2019), A comparative analysis of factors influencing two outbreaks of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS) in Saudi Arabia and South Korea, Viruses, 11(12), DOI:10.3390/v11121119.
  10. [10]  Kwok, K.O., Tang, A., Wei, V.W., Park, W.H., Yeoh, E.K., and Riley, S. (2019), Epidemic models of contact tracing: Systematic review of transmission studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome, Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal, 17, 186-194.
  11. [11]  Tang, B., Wang, X., Li, Q., Bragazzi, N.L., Tang, S., Xiao, Y., and Wu, J. (2020), Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions, Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9(2), DOI:10.3390/jcm9020462.
  12. [12]  Krishnakumar, B. and Rana, S. (2020), COVID-19 in India: Strategies to combat from a combination threat of life and livelihood, Journal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection, 53(3), 389-391.
  13. [13]  Guan, W.J., Chen, R.C., and Zhong, N.S. (2020), Strategies for the prevention and management of coronavirus disease 2019, European Respiratory Journal, 55(4), DOI:10.1183/13993003.00597-2020.
  14. [14]  Zhang, N., Shi, T., Zhong, H., and Guo, Y.(2020), COVID-19 prevention and control public health strategies in Shanghai, China, Journal of Public Health Management and Practice, 26(4), 334-344.
  15. [15]  Rahmet, G., Imran, H., and Firdevs, A. (2020), COVID-19: Prevention and control measures in the community, Turkish Journal of Medical Sciences, 50(3), 571-577.
  16. [16]  Kucharski, A.J., Russell, T.W., Diamond, C., Liu, Y., Edmunds, J., Funk, S., Eggo, R.M., Sun, F., Jit, M., Munday, J.D, and Davies, N. (2020), Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modeling study, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(5), 553-558.
  17. [17]  Wang, H., Wang, Z., Dong, Y., Chang, R., Xu, C., Yu, X., Zhang, S., Tsamlag, L., Shang, M., Huang, J., and Wang, Y. (2020), Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China, Cell Discovery, 6(1), DOI:10.1038/s41421-020-0148-0.
  18. [18]  Ferretti, L., Wymant, C., Kendall, M., Zhao, L., Nurtay, A., Abeler-Dörner, L., Parker, M., Bonsall, D., and Fraser, C. (2020), Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing, Science, 368(6491), DOI:10.1126/science.abb6936.
  19. [19]  Zhao, S., Musa, S.S., Lin, Q., Ran, J., Yang, G., Wang, W., Lou, Y., Yang, L., Gao, D., He, D., and Wang, M.H. (2020), Estimating the unreported number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in China in the first half of January 2020: A data-driven modeling analysis of the early outbreak, Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9, DOI:10.3390/jcm9020388.
  20. [20]  Wu, J.T., Leung, K., and Leung, G.M. (2020), Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-ncov outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modeling study, The Lancet, 395(10225), 689-697.
  21. [21]  Read, J.M., Bridgen, J.R., Cummings, D.A., Ho, A., and Jewell, C.P. (2020), Novel coronavirus 2019-ncov: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 376(1829), DOI:10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549.
  22. [22]  Yang, X., Chen, L., and Chen, J. (1996), Permanence and positive periodic solution for the single-species nonautonomous delay diffusive models, Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 32(4), 109-116.
  23. [23]  Hethcote, H.W. (2000), The mathematics of infectious diseases, SIAM Review, 42(4), 599-653.
  24. [24]  Chavez, C.C., Feng, Z., and Huang, W. (2002), On the computation of $R_0$ and its role, In: Mathematical Approaches for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases: an Introduction, 1, 229, DOI:10.1007/978-1-4757-3667-0\_13.
  25. [25]  Marino, S., Hogue, I.B., Ray, C.J., and Kirschner, D.E. (2008), A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 254(1), 178-196.
  26. [26]  Our World in Data. (2020), Coronavirus pandemic: daily updated research and data. Available online: https://ourworldindata.org/.
  27. [27]  World Health Organization. (2020), Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report -73. Available online: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf.
  28. [28]  Khajanchi, S., Sarkar, K., Mondal, J., and Perc, M. (2020), Dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, 04 May 2020, PREPRINT (Version 1) available at Research Square [https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-27112/v1].
  29. [29]  Demographics, Indexmundi Factbook. Available online: https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/countries.
  30. [30]  Tang, B., Xia, F., Tang, S., Bragazzi, N.L., Li, Q., Sun, X., Liang, J., Xiao, Y. and Wu, J. (2020), The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 96, 636-647.

Copyright © 2011-2024 L & H Scientific Publishing. All rights reserved. Wildcard SSL Certificates