Impact of Nonlinearity of Climate Damage Functions on Long-term Macroeconomic Projections under Conditions of Global Warming

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Authors

  • Dmitry V. Kovalevsky Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, 14th Line 7, office 49, Vasilievsky Island, 199034 St. Petersburg, Russia; Saint Petersburg State University, Ulyanovskaya 3, 198504 St. Perersburg, Russia Author
  • Svetlana I. Kuzmina Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, 14th Line 7, office 49, Vasilievsky Island, 199034 St. Petersburg, Russia Author
  • Leonid P. Bobylev Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, 14th Line 7, office 49, Vasilievsky Island, 199034 St. Petersburg, Russia; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormøhlens gate 47, N-5006 Bergen, Norway Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5890/DNC.2015.03.003

Abstract

A weakly nonlinear climate damage function used by Nordhaus in his DICE model and a strongly nonlinear climate damage function recently proposed by Weitzman are incorporated in the Kellie-Smith—Cox Integrated Assessment model of coupled climate—conomic dynamics, the initial version of which contained only linear climate damages. Long-term projections of the dynamics of coupled climate—economic system are computed with the modified versions of the model. Simulation results for Weitzman function demonstrate pronounced nonlinear emergent dynamics and suggest extremely dramatic long-term economic scenarios for high values of background economic growth rates.

References

[1] Stern, N. (2006), The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

[2] Stanton, E.A., Ackerman, F., and Kartha, S. (2009), Inside the integrated assessment models: four issues in climate economics, Climate and Development, 1, 166–184.

[3] Tol, R.S.J. (2012), On the uncertainty about the total economic impact of climate change, Environmental and Resource Economics, 53, 97–116.

[4] Nordhaus,W.D. (2008), A Question of Balance, Yale University Press, New Haven & London.

[5] Weitzman, M.L. (2012), GHG targets as insurance against catastrophic climate damages, Journal of Public Economic Theory, 14(2), 221–244.

[6] Kellie-Smith, O. and Cox, P.M. (2011), Emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system in the Anthropocene, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 369, 868–886.

[7] Lorenz, H.-W. (1993), Nonlinear Dynamical Economics and Chaotic Motion, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

[8] Barro, R.J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995), Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill, New York.

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PublishedMarch 2015

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Issue

Vol. 4 No. 1 (2015): Regular Issue

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Research Articles

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Unless an article landing page states a Creative Commons or other article-specific license, the article is published by L&H Scientific Publishing, LLC and all rights are reserved. The article-level license and copyright notice govern access and reuse.

How to Cite

Kovalevsky, D. V., Kuzmina, S. I., & Bobylev, L. P. (2026). Impact of Nonlinearity of Climate Damage Functions on Long-term Macroeconomic Projections under Conditions of Global Warming. Discontinuity, Nonlinearity, and Complexity, 4(1), 25-33. https://doi.org/10.5890/DNC.2015.03.003

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